1304BPS Atmospheric Science Assessment Answer

The safety model of Aviation transport

Throughout the history of the aviation industry, independent investigations of aviation accidents and incidents have been widely regarded as a useful instrument to improve safety. By identifying the sequence of events that adequately explains the disaster and results in the formulation of recommendations to prevent recurrences, such investigations allow the industry to learn. Additionally, the fact that these investigations are made public helps to boost public trust in the industry. The adoption of independent investigations has been slower to spread to other transport sectors, such as road, rail, and water.

The concurrent development of investigative bodies' methodologies and aviation technology, the inherent international nature of commercial aviation, and the influence of political and public pressure following significant accidents are the reasons. The aviation sector's emphasis on safety investigation is progressively spreading to other areas of transportation, and beyond that, to other industries including fixed-site manufacturing facilities, healthcare, and disaster management.

The aviation sector's emphasis on safety investigation is progressively spreading to other areas of transportation, and beyond that, to other industries including fixed-site manufacturing facilities, healthcare, and disaster management.

Nevertheless, as history has shown, aeroplanes are not impervious to danger. We must demonstrate during certification that an aeroplane can be evacuated entirely in 90 seconds using only half of its doors and that the materials used in construction are not easily combustible since we know that fire on board is a risk. Additionally, pilot training is essential, and pilots are taught to minimise hazards and prioritise safety at all times. Today, pilots receive training for even the most unlikely scenarios: Computers that can finally run very realistic flight simulators provide training that was previously impossible. On the flip side, pilot training is quite expensive. Even running a sophisticated training simulator is quite expensive, but safety always comes first since everyone in the aviation business is aware that even one disaster may lead to financial ruin.

Aviation Statistics

Around 4.3 billion passengers and 8.3 trillion revenue passenger kilometres were transported by airlines globally in 2018. (RPKs). The amount of freight flown by air totaled 50.8 million tonnes and covered 231 billion freight tonne kilometres (FTKs). More than 100,000 planes carry more than 12 million people and around USD 18 billion worth of cargo each day.

As per the aviation annual report concerning the entire world,

Around 4.3 billion passengers and 8.3 trillion revenue passenger kilometres were transported by airlines globally in 2018. (RPKs). The amount of freight flown by air totaled 50.8 million tonnes and covered 231 billion freight tonne kilometres (FTKs). More than 100,000 planes carry more than 12 million people and around USD 18 billion worth of cargo each day. With an overall economic impact of USD 2.7 trillion.

even so what is the possibility of accidents

Figure 1: 2010-2019 accident statistics

Reasons for the accidents

there are multiple reasons for both fatal and non-fatal accidents. And all those various reasons are shown in the picture below. Out of those, for this report we are concerned with the Environmental factors more.

The environmental factors are categorized in major two types weather and wildlife. The wildlife factor consists of bird strike and other animal strike in some cases. Whereas, the weather factor consists of Icing, Lightning, Turbulence, Un-forecasted weather, etc.

For the sake of this report we are focuing on the aircrafts that weights les than 5700kg; and these aircrafts are termed as Light aircrafts and many-a-times in regular language they are also known as small planes.

Light aircrafts

Description

An aircraft which are designed with the max gross take off weight as approximate 5700kg or even less are termed as light aircrafts. These aircrafts are usually used for sightseeing, photography of both, governmental and commercial use. In terms of commercial use, these aircrafts also fly as air taxis for passengers and tourists along with acting as freight transport. Some examples of light aircrafts are, Cessna, the entire range from Cessna 120 to Cessna 208, all models of Piper, the non-jet models of Beechcraft, etc.

Out of all the examples, the best light aircrafts are

• Cessna 172
• Icon A5
• Beechcraft G36 Bonanza

Figure 2:One of the best light aircraft, "Cessna 172"

The Major reasons for light aircraft accidents can be categorized on the surface as below,

• Pilot error
• Redundancies
• Wake turbulence
• Weather
• Wildlife strikes
• Landing condition
• Mechanical faults

Light aircraft accident stats

The probability of dying in an automobile accident is 1 in 114 for drivers and 1 in 654 for passengers.

In contrast end, the likelihood of dying in a plane accident is 1 in 9,821.

However, the FAA reports that 21.7 million flight hours were registered by general aviation aircraft in 2017, with a fatal accident rate of 0.931 per 100,000 flight hours. And light aircraft are included in the general aviation category. However, there were no fatalities on passenger planes.

Figure 3: Percentage of fatal accidents

Case study of de Havilland Canada DHC-2 Beaver floatplane

Summary of the Accident

The pilot and five passengers of a de Havilland Canada DHC-2 Beaver floatplane with the registration VH-NOO boarded the aircraft for a return charter trip from Cottage Point to Rose Bay, New South Wales, on the afternoon of December 31st. The aircraft made a 270° right turn in Cowan Water shortly after takeoff before entering Jerusalem Bay below the height of the ground. The plane halted its ascent, proceeded down the bay, and then executed a sharp right turn. The plane's nose then fell, causing it to crash into the lake. The aeroplane was destroyed, and all those on board suffered fatal injuries.

The details of the return flight

As per the official report from ATSB the passengers of the return flight boarded and the plane started to float towards to the appointed take off area and the plane started to float towards the north-east towards the Cowan Creek. Furthering the plane took a right turn in the Cowan Water. This was where the witness captured the plane entering the ‘Hole in the wall’. The plane continued to turn till it passed cowan bay and enter the Jerusalem bay. After the turn near cowan water the witness reported the plane descending even below the height of the terrain around the region. The witness was also able to report that they heard the engine of the aircraft but the sound was normal and therefore they did not think about it. But around 1 km into the Jerusalem bay. 95m from the northern shore and approx. 1.2 km from the end point of Jerusalem bay, the plane crashed with the water. Soon the aircraft inverted and within seconds the cabin submerged with all the 5 passengers including the pilot inside. All of whole suffered fatal injuring resulting from the accident.

The findings as per the ATSB investigation

The investigation report of this accidents stated the findings in three categories.

• The contributing factors
• Factors that increased the risk but are did not directly contributed
• Other finding that can be considered

The contributing factors

The contributing factors consist of the factors that directly contributed to the leadings of the accidents.

• The factor that contributed the most is the height at which the aircraft entered the Jerusalem Bay, which was found to be below the terrain height in a descending flight path. As per the experts there was no need for the aircraft to make the shift in the altitude.

It was concluded that when the aircraft made the steep turn towards the Jerusalem bay, the aircraft got stuck at a lower altitude and before it could recover the aircraft crashed with the water.

• The investigators are certain that the cabin of the aircraft consists of higher levels of carbon monoxide. This high level of CO made the bodies of the pilot and the passengers to have high levels of carboxyhaemoglobin during the blood test. The other factor that contributed to the high levels of carboxyhaemoglobin consists the ajar door of the pilot.
• There was presence of unreliable disposable chemical spot detectors. Because of this the high levels of carbon monoxide in the cabin was not detected. And therefore the pilot didn’t pay any attention to the changing colors of the sensor since the detector’s don’t exactly draw the attention of the pilot for this. For this, the ATSB report highlighted that there are no exact requirements for the aircrafts to carry carbon monoxide detectors even though they are fairly cheap. This was one the major safety issue.

Factors the increased the risk

These are the factors that did not directly contributed to the accident but were responsible for increasing the risk that lead to the accident. The factors are,

• it was stated as a likely situation the reliability of the chemical detectors was decreased quite a bit due to sun bleaching.
• Another safety issue was that on top of the carrying of the detectors being not mandatory, the Sydney Seaplanes also did not have system or mechanism that would monitor the serviceability of the CO detectors.
• The investigation also determined that there were many worn out in situ bolts that help n securing the magneto access panels on the main firewall.

It was also clearly stated in the investigation report that the contributing and non-contributing factors that were studied during the course of this investigation were hampered due the missing and insufficient record of data concerning the flight.

Other finding that can be considered

This category is for those finding that might have contributed to the risks but one cannot be sure since there is insufficiency of the recorded data, as stated above.

• There is a high possibility that the passenger occupying the right-side seat of the middle row had unfastened seatbelt when the aircraft crashed with the water.
• As per the study and investigation done, the accident would have led to fatal casualties and was stated to be non-survivable.
• It was also noted that the pilot was not suffering from any medical condition. And therefore, the cause of the decreasing altitude of the aircraft could not be concluded entirely on the pilot.

Weather Information

As per the Bureau of Meteorology following factor regarding the weather were noted. The advised that were provided by them after analyzing the data are,

• The possibility of moderate turbulence is ruled out. This is because as per the data, the winds at 400 and 1700 was flowing at the speed f 10-15kt from the easy and in the north-east direction. Due to this, the wind at that time was flowing over the hills and the strength of the wind was also concluded to be reasonable. These factors rule out the possibility of moderate turbulence but it also tells hat there is a possibility of light turbulence.
• No rainfall was detected in the weather radar in the entire region.

As per the analysis of the photographs that were taken by the passengers the same factors with little variance in the numbers were concluded. The conclusions are,

• The breeze was considered to be standard on the water and the value was found to be around 15-18kt. Whereas the values of the speed of the wind was almost similar, 12-15kt from the north and in the north-east direction. The wind altitude was also similar, that is over the hills. The pictures also helped in concluding that there might have been gusting and minor windshear. With the clouds present at the height of 1500 ft.

The reports from the witnesses differes slightly since they are from different locations such as the cottage point and cowan water.

• At the cottage point, the wind speed was stated to be fairly strong which could be around 15kt. A witness who saw the aircraft take flight stated that the take off was suddenly very gusty.
• As per the witnesses at the cowan water, the speed of the wind was concluded to be 10-25kt and it was also stated that the wind from the east and it was strong blustery breeze which flowed at 20kt. overall, the day was reported to be sunny, warm with a little cloud cover and good enough visibility.
• As per the witness of Jerusalem bay, the day was stated to be sunny and warm and with little cloud cover and nice visibility. The wind was stated to be coming from north-east and towards to bay.

Thus, even though the reports of the witnesses differ, the overall conclusion from them, the Bureau of Meteorology, the reports from the pilot that departed before this one and the photograph analysis; everything points out that the weather was suitable for the floatplane.

The data sources

The information and data that was collected and studied for the entire course of this investigation are stated in list format below.

• Sydney Seaplanes
• Number of Witnesses
• The bureau of Meteorology
• NSW Police Force
• Airag Aviation Services
• Floatplane subject matter experts
• NSW Health Pathology, Sydney
• Department of Forensic Medicine, Sydney
• Civil Aviation Safety Authority

Case study if Cessna Caravan 208B accident

Summary of the Accident

On May 4, 2011, at around 10:45 IST, a Cessna CV 208 B operated by M/s North East Shuttles Private Limited (VT-NES) experienced a runway overrun accident at Lengpui airport.

With 10 passengers, one crew member, and one unscheduled trip between Imphal and Lengpui, the aircraft was in operation. At 1000 hours, the plane took off properly from Imphal, and at 1023 hours, it made contact with ATC Lengpui. The most recent weather information, with a 4500m visibility, was provided by ATC Lengpui. The tower controller granted the pilot's request for special VFR. The pilot chose holding in conjunction with ATC at 10 miles while preserving visual separation from the landscape at a height of 6500 feet as visibility further decreased to 2000m. After that, the pilot reported downwind for RWY 17 and then reported for final without speaking to ATC. After seeing the aircraft as it reported final approach, the controller cleared the landing with a calm breeze and wet RWY surface.

The aeroplane landed quickly and with little chance of stopping it before it touched down considerably in front of the landing threshold. The aeroplane ascended a 10 foot high platform built to install the Localizer antenna at the end of RWY 17 since it was unable to halt within the length of runway that was available. The aeroplane continued at a high rate of speed beyond the localizer platform and crashed into a ravine that was about 60 feet deep.

The incident happened in the daylight. It was determined that the incident was an accident. In order to ascertain the cause and contributing causes leading to the accident, the Ministry of Civil Aviation issued Order No. AV.15018/03/2011-DG dated June 23, 2011, appointing a Committee of Inquiry under Rule 74 of the Aircraft Rule 1937 3. The committee published a public notice in Mizoram's top newspapers asking for any relevant information from the general public.

The aeroplane sustained significant damage. All nine occupants of the plane, including the pilot, were unharmed. No evidence of pre- or post-impact fire was seen.

The accident path

The approach of the path of the flight should have been as shown in the picture above. But as per the meteorological data, the possibility of sudden lightening was deducted after the aircraft had taken off. The pilot was aware of it. There were 2 possible ways. Keep going till the lightning cloud end and circle around it. and second, make a sharp turn before. But the sharp turn was a dangerous option. Which eventually led to the accident.

It is evident that the pilot turned for the base leg after spotting weather on the downwind leg before reaching the end of the downwind leg. As a result of this early turn, as the pilot rolled out for finals, he had already exceeded the runway 17 landing threshold. Due to this unusual visual pattern, the aircraft crossed the landing threshold quickly and high. The plane touched down at a distance that made it impossible to prevent it from overshooting the runway, much beyond the runway's intended touchdown point and at a faster than usual speed.

As seen in the above picture the touchdown landing was not prefect and rather it was late. The pilot failed to follow a visible circuit pattern, the aircraft was not stabilised, but at no point did the pilot contemplate doing a go-around and continued to land the aircraft in a dangerous manner. The Pilot was likewise unaware of his need for a certain landing distance. M/s NES failed to give its pilot clear and consistent instructions or training about the organization's and the DGCA's policies and procedures in a number of areas, including the calculation of landing field length. Radar usage in the weather, mandatory go-around rules.

Meteorological Information

At 00:00 IST, when the aircraft took off from Imphal. There was no major weather, according to the Met Department's weather report, and VFR conditions were in effect.

Weather conditions over the next 1000 hours were as follows:

• Wind Calm,
• Visibility 7 km,
• Cloud SCT 2000 ft,
• SCT 10,000 ft,
• QNH 1012HPA,
• Temp 27 ºC,
• Dew Point 18 ℃

During the investigation it was also noted that the Met observatory stationed at Lengpui airport provides current weather only. There is no facility available to give weather forecast.

The wreckage details

Somewhere at foot of airstrip 17, a 60-foot ravine contained the aircraft's debris. Significant measurements were made using an analogue airspeed indicator, whose needle was stuck at around 92 Kts. The primary wreckage of the aircraft had no sections or components that had disintegrated, however the following brief descriptions of the damage the aircrafts had experienced are attached,

• RH Wing strut fracture and distortion of the wing top attachment.
• Leading edge of RH Flap was damaged.
• The cabin's LH wing attachment area's aft side caved in. Major damage was done to the LH wing.
• Completely damaged LH wing strut.
• Significant damage to the LH aileron.
• The three undercarriages were all damaged. burst in the fuselage's belly Spinner and the entire propeller blade are completely ruined.
• Broken engine mounts and significant damage were discovered at the cowling and exhaust areas.

References

Aviation Occurrence Investigation (Systemic), 2021. ATSB Transport Safety Report: Collision with water involving de Havilland Canada DHC-2,VH-NOO, s.l.: Australian Transport Safety Bureau.

Flightradar24, n.d. Flight Radar 24: LiveAir Traffic. [Online]
Available at: https://www.flightradar24.com/24.05,43.22/2
[Accessed 2022].

IATA, 2015. Annual Review 2015, s.l.: s.n.

LENGPUI AIRPORT, 2011. ACCIDENT TO M/S NORTH EAST SHUTTLES PRIVATE LIMITED CESSNA CARAVAN 208B AIRCRAFT VT-NES, s.l.: s.n.

Stoop, J. & Kahan, J., 2005. Flying is the safest way to travel: How aviation was a pioneer in independent accident investigation. EJTIR, 5(2), pp. 115-128.

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